Rapid biofuel expansion risks straining food supplies and accelerating forest loss by 2030, new research warns

September 22, 2026 – Bonn, Germany 

Government efforts to reduce exposure to oil supply disruptions by rapidly expanding biofuel use risk shifting pressure onto forests and food markets, according to new research from Chatham House conducted in partnership with the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).  

Expanded biofuel mandates and targets could create 36 million hectares of additional cropland pressure by 2030 – an area roughly the size of Germany – increasing competition for land and crops, pushing up prices and heightening risks to forests and biodiversity. 

The warning comes as agricultural markets already face challenges linked to a severe El Niño event and geopolitical conflict. Around 30% of global crude oil and fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning the same disruption driving interest in alternative fuels is also affecting the inputs needed to grow many biofuel feedstocks. 

Dr. Subhra Bhattacharjee, Director General of FSC, said: 

“Expanding biofuels without strong safeguards risks turning short-term energy  pressures into long-term land use change at the cost of forests, compromising the  resilience of communities and economies to climate change.  

“Biofuels can contribute to the energy transition, but their expansion does not need  to come at the expense of forests. Feedstocks can be responsibly sourced and  produced without driving forest loss. Governments and businesses must know  where  these crops come from — and draw clear lines before fuel demand pushes  further into forests.” 

The research finds: 

• The land footprint of biofuel production could more than double. Around 32 million hectares were used to grow biofuel feedstocks in 2023. Global biofuel demand was already expected to require a further 20 million hectares by 2030. Under new expanded mandates and targets, additional demand could reach 36 million* hectares, bringing the total implied footprint to roughly 68 million hectares.
• Rising biofuel demand could push up prices of corn, soybeans and vegetable oils. Roughly 40% of US corn demand already comes from ethanol production, and new federal targets would raise biofuel requirements to record levels, including a 60% increase in biodiesel and renewable diesel production.
• India is drawing increasing volumes of food crops into ethanol production. Maize is already the country’s leading ethanol feedstock, while an additional 5.2 million tonnes of rice has been allocated to ethanol production.  
• Indonesia’s higher biodiesel mandate could reshape palm-oil demand and trade. The country has moved towards a 50% palm-oil biodiesel blend and has restricted exports of some feedstocks to secure domestic supplies. The paper warns that further expansion of feedstock plantations could increase pressure on forests, either directly or by displacing other agricultural production. 
• Higher mandates could raise costs for both taxpayers and consumers. Rising feedstock and input costs could squeeze producer margins, increasing pressure for subsidies and drawing public funds away from priorities that support economic growth and wider social benefits. 

The research argues that biofuels can provide a targeted option for existing vehicle fleets and sectors that remain difficult to electrify, but it questions large-scale expansion in passenger vehicles, where electrification is generally more efficient and cheaper to run.  

Dr. Patrick Schröder, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House, said: 

"There are better responses to the energy crisis than aggressively promoting biofuels, which will create new pressures on land, food and ecosystems.  

Governments should prioritise immediate measures to improve energy efficiency, while accelerating renewable power and the electrification of road transport wherever economically and technically feasible. Before raising biofuel mandates, they should make the most out of existing resources, prioritizing genuinely sustainable waste- and residue-based feedstocks over dedicated food and energy crops.” 

The research sets out 16 recommendations to help safeguard against the risks of rapid biofuel expansion. These include prioritising food production where crops compete with fuel demand; strengthening land-use controls, supply chain traceability and deforestation-free requirements; and limiting higher mandates to supply from improved yields, existing or degraded land, wastes, residues or advanced biofuels. The paper also calls for clear land-use guardrails to prevent the conversion of forests and other high-biodiversity ecosystems, alongside stronger guidance to ensure biofuel expansion does not undermine biodiversity, restoration or anti-deforestation commitments. The paper also recommends that governments reassess higher biofuel mandates once immediate supply pressures ease, particularly where continued expansion would depend on subsidies or other long-term policy support.  

Read the full research paper. 

*The figure represents estimated additional cropland pressure associated with expanded biofuel production under announced mandates and targets. It is not a forecast that 36 million hectares of forest will be cleared.  

MEDIA CONTACT: For media inquiries, please contact media@fsc.org.  

About the Forest Stewardship Council: 
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) is a global non-profit organisation promoting responsible forest management. FSC sets standards that help businesses and consumers identify products from responsibly managed forests, while advancing action on biodiversity, climate and community well-being. 

About Chatham House: 
Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading policy institute based in London. Its research and convening work help governments, businesses and civil society address major international challenges, including climate change, resource security and sustainable development.